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Prediction for CME (2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-12-06T21:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43306/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-12-06T20:53Z. The CME is also seen as a full halo in SOHO LASCO C2. The source of this CME is most likely an M8.1 flare from AR 14299 (N23E02) that peaked at 2025-12-06T20:39Z. The eruption signature can be seen across all wavelengths of GOES SUVI imagery and includes dimming, opening field lines, and an EUV wave. The eruption is also visible from the point of view of STEREO A EUV imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-12-09T07:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-12-09T06:11Z (-4.89h, +4.31h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
*** LASCO ***
Time of Launch: 2025/12/06 20:55Z
Plane of Sky 1: 04:15Z; 31.5Rsun; Halo
Plane of Sky 2: 04:45Z; 31.5Rsun; Halo
POS Difference: 00:30
POS Midpoint: 04:30Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:35

Numeric View/Impact Type: -2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.55
Travel Time: ~7.55 * 7:35 = 57:16

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-12-09T06:11Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/12/07 14:36Z
Lead Time: 37.22 hour(s)
Difference: 1.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-12-07T18:42Z
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